ARB

Verify this yourself

1. 1

   Take the canonical payload below and hash it. It must equal the call hash — this is what fixes the claim to these exact fields.

   Canonical payload{"callHash":"0x2fed647925723aef7248b70d98de5560de024d89ff105492e16f2da0f48be899","emitter":"scienter.ensemble.v3","asset":"ARB","side":"long","claimedAt":1787841498,"horizonSeconds":28800}
2. 2

   Fold the call hash with each sibling in order. The result must equal the batch root the ledger published.

   Call hash0x2fed647925723aef7248b70d98de5560de024d89ff105492e16f2da0f48be899

   Sibling 00x9e3779b1aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

   Sibling 10x13c6ef362aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

   Sibling 20x1daa66d13aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

   Sibling 30x278dde6c4aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

   Batch root0x2e90b15f4dacbea986ab67af0c0194aedeb613801be97ddcd5520f14b9ed373e

   This batch contains 64 calls; 4 siblings is the expected depth.

3. 3

   Read the root out of the Base transaction and compare timestamps. The block must predate the settlement — that is the entire claim.

   Commit tx 0x3752…4160Settlement tx 0xbf85…4393

What this proves: the call existed, unmodified, before the outcome did. What it does not prove: that the call was good. That is what the backtest and the aggregate on the ledger index are for — and they include the losses.

Outcome

Called long on ARB at 0.89602. At the 8h horizon the hyperliquid-mid was 0.89983, which is +43 bps signed to the direction of the call.