Alpha Ledger
Demo dataEvery directional call Scienter has made, hashed into a Merkle batch before the outcome was known, then settled against the mid at a fixed horizon. Losses included. Follow any proof link and check it yourself — this page is a convenience mirror, not the authority.
Calls recorded
140
all statuses
Settled
135
5 still open
Win rate
59.3%
80 of 135
Cumulative
+6586 bps
sum of settled outcomes
Attested on-chain
129
92% of the book
Alpha Ledger · Emitters
scienter.ensemble.v3
+3478 bps59% of 59
62 calls · avg +59 bps
scienter.liqmap
+2072 bps59% of 29
31 calls · avg +71 bps
scienter.funding-skew
+581 bps75% of 20
20 calls · avg +29 bps
scienter.whaletrack
+455 bps48% of 27
27 calls · avg +17 bps
140 / 140
| Claimed | Asset | Predicted | Actual | Status | Call hash | Proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 04:34Z | SOL | short8h horizon | pending | emitted | 0x83e404bc…4737dd | Base |
| 2026-08-31 21:22Z | DOGE | long8h horizon | pending | queued | 0xc19bd4a3…ec02f8 | Base |
| 2026-08-31 06:12Z | ETH | long8h horizon | pending | emitted | 0x3ceec29e…f1e725 | Base |
| 2026-08-30 05:58Z | ARB | long8h horizon | pending | emitted | 0xca59301e…c9e1c4 | Base |
| 2026-08-30 00:13Z | HYPE | short8h horizon | pending | emitted | 0xaf4593fe…e09cdf | Base |
| 2026-08-29 01:18Z | AVAX | short8h horizon | -53 bps | settled | 0xccf80ada…dc247a | Base |
| 2026-08-28 16:50Z | BTC | short8h horizon | +141 bps | settled | 0x6d490d1d…12a2fc | Base |
| 2026-08-28 02:23Z | SOL | long8h horizon | +406 bps | settled | 0x71a5f31a…175e2b | Base |
| 2026-08-27 14:33Z | ARB | long8h horizon | +43 bps | settled | 0x2fed6479…8be899 | Base |
| 2026-08-26 11:24Z | SUI | short8h horizon | +54 bps | settled | 0x83c80147…b77943 | Base |
| 2026-08-26 01:54Z | ETH | short8h horizon | -64 bps | settled | 0x60854879…de0dda | Base |
| 2026-08-25 10:46Z | OP | short8h horizon | -34 bps | settled | 0xf63777db…4e7b93 | Base |
| 2026-08-24 21:03Z | HYPE | short8h horizon | -169 bps | settled | 0xe1a62a9b…7abbf9 | Base |
| 2026-08-24 04:08Z | WIF | long8h horizon | -1191 bps | settled | 0xbaa8afc6…945cf4 | Base |
| 2026-08-23 08:16Z | TIA | long8h horizon | +648 bps | settled | 0x11241222…8e460e | Base |
| 2026-08-23 03:14Z | ETH | short8h horizon | +28 bps | settled | 0x7603dea2…5ced1c | Base |
| 2026-08-22 14:45Z | HYPE | long8h horizon | -48 bps | settled | 0x45713447…e7d110 | Base |
| 2026-08-21 15:25Z | OP | short8h horizon | +178 bps | settled | 0xbf68148e…96134a | Base |
| 2026-08-21 06:21Z | SOL | short8h horizon | +626 bps | settled | 0x0ee40141…6b2062 | Base |
| 2026-08-20 07:43Z | SUI | long8h horizon | -154 bps | settled | 0x10aec97b…35dd88 | Base |
| 2026-08-19 15:44Z | DOGE | long8h horizon | +117 bps | settled | 0x118cc7a1…4465f1 | Base |
| 2026-08-19 05:34Z | BTC | short8h horizon | +4 bps | settled | 0x6f6585b7…d71ac3 | Base |
| 2026-08-18 19:09Z | ETH | long8h horizon | +104 bps | settled | 0xc48dd911…0f2a81 | Base |
| 2026-08-17 22:04Z | SUI | short8h horizon | -94 bps | settled | 0x75da10a1…aa07f5 | Base |
| 2026-08-17 05:23Z | AVAX | short8h horizon | -105 bps | settled | 0x540366b8…339593 | Base |
| 2026-08-16 21:22Z | BTC | short8h horizon | +54 bps | settled | 0xce64f1d1…c929e7 | Base |
| 2026-08-16 07:23Z | OP | long8h horizon | +311 bps | settled | 0x14361eda…43aad6 | Base |
| 2026-08-15 12:24Z | LINK | long8h horizon | +374 bps | settled | 0xeb32f2d0…41c79a | Base |
| 2026-08-14 15:37Z | AVAX | long8h horizon | -97 bps | settled | 0xe7dd0463…b56bc3 | Base |
| 2026-08-14 04:57Z | HYPE | short8h horizon | -199 bps | settled | 0x0590fc42…619856 | Base |
| 2026-08-13 13:12Z | BTC | short8h horizon | +91 bps | settled | 0x7e30c21b…c16c78 | Base |
| 2026-08-13 00:19Z | WIF | short8h horizon | +10 bps | settled | 0xe68b6b95…3355f8 | Base |
| 2026-08-12 09:25Z | ETH | short8h horizon | -160 bps | settled | 0x8e4f15c2…064d94 | Base |
| 2026-08-11 12:57Z | AVAX | long8h horizon | -67 bps | settled | 0xcd7d97bd…1639b0 | Base |
| 2026-08-11 00:15Z | BTC | long8h horizon | +57 bps | settled | 0x08c28ad6…2d5621 | Base |
| 2026-08-10 07:12Z | DOGE | short8h horizon | +181 bps | settled | 0x4609b276…c6caef | Base |
| 2026-08-09 17:44Z | ETH | long8h horizon | +25 bps | settled | 0x565b2c17…9f6ca9 | Base |
| 2026-08-09 04:56Z | SOL | short8h horizon | -208 bps | settled | 0xfe1fdbbe…241576 | Base |
| 2026-08-08 17:15Z | AVAX | long8h horizon | +361 bps | settled | 0x253826fa…93f285 | Base |
| 2026-08-08 00:33Z | OP | short8h horizon | -748 bps | settled | 0x1f47cc07…05706b | Base |
| 2026-08-07 03:39Z | BTC | short8h horizon | +61 bps | settled | 0x75274011…7023f9 | Base |
| 2026-08-06 15:08Z | SOL | long8h horizon | +205 bps | settled | 0x777a3fb7…ad3eab | Base |
| 2026-08-05 20:26Z | AVAX | long8h horizon | -556 bps | settled | 0xbc0b6a01…2ecb3d | Base |
| 2026-08-05 12:35Z | LINK | short8h horizon | -161 bps | settled | 0x975b551c…12dc60 | Base |
| 2026-08-04 22:30Z | ARB | long8h horizon | +85 bps | settled | 0xfe27a545…b0896c | Base |
| 2026-08-04 05:59Z | BTC | long8h horizon | -84 bps | settled | 0x57277ab8…8b65c7 | Base |
| 2026-08-03 11:57Z | AVAX | long8h horizon | -118 bps | settled | 0x3a2b8bc8…81d88b | Base |
| 2026-08-02 21:52Z | SOL | short8h horizon | -313 bps | settled | 0x2706fc82…41b353 | Base |
| 2026-08-02 12:06Z | DOGE | short8h horizon | +73 bps | settled | 0x146d6ebe…fce032 | Base |
| 2026-08-01 12:47Z | SUI | long8h horizon | -120 bps | settled | 0x644e9248…57d83c | Base |
Set in Playfair Display · IBM Plex Mono · Inter