Case studies
The receipts, in full.
Forensic reconstructions of real events on public chains. We publish the transaction signatures and the commands to reproduce every figure, so that nothing here has to be taken on trust.
9 September 2026
Correction: the September 9 Solana venue comparison is withdrawn
The original venue rates and comparison are withdrawn after a sampling audit. Historical counts remain visible; publication now requires a compatible epoch and sufficient follow-up coverage.
researchrug-detectionsolanamethodology
4 September 2026
Why we launched forensic, not predictive
We built a rug-prediction model three times and shipped it zero times. This is what went wrong each time, why the obstacle is the dataset rather than the algorithm, and what we are selling instead.
positioningmethodologymachine-learninghonesty
1 September 2026 · backtested reconstruction
How Scienter would have flagged LIBRA twenty-one minutes before the announcement
A backtested forensic reconstruction of the LIBRA launch, rebuilt transaction by transaction from Solana mainnet. Every figure below is reproducible with a curl command we print.
subject Bo9jh3wsmcC2AjakLWzNmKJ3SgtZmXEcSaW7L2FAvUsU
case-studyforensic-intelligencerug-detection